APEC 2024: How do Peru’s economic indicators compare to previous years when the country hosted the forum?

The economy is projected to grow only 3.1% by the end of the year, according to the Central Reserve Bank (BCR). If realized, this figure would mark the lowest growth rate compared to the previous two years in which Peru hosted APEC.

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Maritza Saenz

Jorge Falen

25/11/2024 11H27

El Comercio reviewed Peru’s economic performance during years when the country hosted APEC. In 2008, national output grew by 9.8%, and private investment exceeded 23%. Additionally, the construction and services sectors showed higher growth than others, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI).

That year, the world faced a global crisis triggered by the housing bubble, which led to a disconnect between the real estate and banking and financial sectors, resulting in an oversupply of properties and a subsequent decline in stock values.

“In response to the recessionary environment, developed countries increased public spending, which raised global debt levels. For smaller or developing nations like Peru, this marked the start of a recessionary period due to reduced external demand for their products, as major trade partners stalled their most dynamic sectors,” explained Carlos González Taranco, an economics professor at USIL.

However, the impact of the global recession reached Peru with a one-year delay, noted former Minister of Economy and Finance David Tuesta. This allowed Peru to enjoy strong revenues in 2008, driven by the high prices of its raw material exports. The impact of the global crisis hit Peru only in the following year, 2009.

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In 2016, Peru hosted the forum for the second time. GDP grew by nearly 4%, but private investment declined by 16.5%. Growth was primarily sustained by mining, though investment in that sector fell by 49.6%.

According to González, private investment in 2016 was affected by preceding government policies. Between 2011 and 2012, the focus shifted away from promoting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and adopted a nationalist orientation characterized by increased public spending, which led to a series of fiscal deficits that had to be supported by external public debt.

As the economy began to slow in 2011, by 2016, growth had tapered off, and Peru has since remained on a path of low economic development. “It’s also worth noting that 2016 coincided with political turbulence and the Odebrecht scandal,” Tuesta added.

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For 2024, the Central Reserve Bank expects GDP growth of 3.1%, with an upward bias. Private investment is projected to reach 2.3%. According to David Tuesta, productivity levels this year are lower than in 2008. While there are better trade opportunities, the outlook is clouded by significant political and social challenges, including the fight against rising crime.